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TRUPANION, INC. (TRUP)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Solid Q4 close with revenue of $337.3M (+14% YoY), subscription revenue up 19% to $227.8M, and adjusted EBITDA up to $19.4M; GAAP net income was $1.7M ($0.04), vs. $(2.2)M/$(0.05) LY .
  • Subscription profitability inflected: subscription adjusted operating margin reached a record 15.3% (vs. 13.0% LY) as the subscription “value proposition” improved to 70.0% from 72.7% (lower is better) on pricing and claims processing efficiency .
  • Cash generation strong: operating cash flow $23.7M and FCF $21.8M in Q4; FY24 FCF hit a record $38.6M (3% margin), above the 2.5% target, bolstering capacity to ramp PAC in 2025 .
  • 2025 outlook: FY revenue $1.379B–$1.414B; subscription revenue $961M–$984M; total adjusted operating income $120M–$140M; Q1 guide implies ~15% subscription growth with AOI up ~29% YoY at midpoint; plan to step up PAC through the year; assumptions include ~15% vet inflation and 69% USD/CAD rate .
  • Catalyst setup: narrative shift from margin repair to measured growth; management flagged vet leads +30% YoY and record hospital adoption of direct pay, with PAC dollars expected to ramp and pet growth to contribute more in 2H25 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well
    • Record subscription adjusted operating margin in Q4; “the highest subscription adjusted operating margin in our company’s history” — Margi Tooth, CEO .
    • Pricing/ops drove better value proposition (70.0%) and sub margin expansion (+230 bps YoY) despite 30 bps headwind from adverse development (~$0.7M) .
    • Cash execution: Q4 FCF $21.8M; FY24 FCF $38.6M (3% of revenue) exceeding the 2.5% target; capital surplus strengthened materially at APIC (+$78.2M vs YE23) .
  • What Went Wrong
    • Gross adds remained modest (approx. 60,200 new subscription pets), PAC rose to $261 (vs. $217 LY), and retention slipped YoY (98.25% TTM vs. 98.49%), pointing to a conversion/retention rebuild in 2025 .
    • Other business margin compressed to 0.8% (vs. 2.4% LY) including a $0.9M A/R write-down; segment expected to decelerate as Pets Best underwrites with a new carrier .
    • $5.3M goodwill impairment in Europe (SmartPaws and PetExpert) due to delayed launches and narrowed market focus; SmartPaws goodwill reduced to zero .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($M)$295.857 $327.456 $337.307
Subscription Revenue ($M)$191.537 $218.986 $227.783
Other Business Revenue ($M)$104.320 $108.470 $109.524
Net Income ($M)$(2.163) $1.425 $1.656
Diluted EPS ($)$(0.05) $0.03 $0.04
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$8.487 $14.527 $19.381
Subscription Adjusted Op Margin (%)13.0% 14.0% 15.3%
Subscription “Value Proposition” (% of sub revenue)72.7% 71.0% 70.0%
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$17.507 $15.296 $23.701
Free Cash Flow ($M)$13.537 $13.382 $21.843

Segment performance (non-GAAP AOI focus)

SegmentQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Subscription Revenue ($M)$191.537 $218.986 $227.783
Subscription Adjusted Op Income ($M)$24.902 $30.751 $34.964
Other Business Revenue ($M)$104.320 $108.470 $109.524
Other Business Adjusted Op Income ($M)$2.555 $1.816 $0.834

Key operating metrics (end of period or period averages)

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Pets Enrolled (end)1,714,473 1,688,903 1,677,570
Subscription Pets (end)991,426 1,032,042 1,041,212
Monthly Avg Revenue per Pet ($)$67.07 $74.27 $76.02
Average PAC ($)$217 $243 $261
Average Monthly Retention (%)98.49% 98.29% 98.25%

Notes:

  • Non-GAAP definitions and reconciliations provided by the company; subscription “value proposition” equals subscription cost of paying vet invoices as % of subscription revenue (lower = better) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueFY 2025N/A$1.379B–$1.414B New
Subscription RevenueFY 2025N/A$961M–$984M New
Adjusted Operating Income (Total)FY 2025N/A$120M–$140M New
Total RevenueQ1 2025N/A$334M–$340M New
Subscription RevenueQ1 2025N/A$230M–$233M New
Adjusted Operating Income (Total)Q1 2025N/A$26M–$29M New

Assumptions/qualifiers mentioned by management: ~15% vet inflation carried into 2025; 69% USD/CAD rate used in guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Margin trajectoryQ2: sub VP 74.1% (improving vs LY); AOI building; FCF returning . Q3: reached target VP ~71%; sub AOI margin 14.0% .Record sub AOI margin 15.3%; VP 70.0%; AOI +30% YoY .Improving
Pricing & vet inflationPricing alignment emphasized; ongoing rate actions .Assume ~15% vet inflation; rate flow normalizing; earned rate >15% in 2025 but lower than last two years .Normalizing with elevated baseline
PAC & growth mixPullback in PAC to protect margins; still growing pets modestly .PAC to ramp gradually in 2025 toward 2022 levels (~$80M); expect pet growth to contribute more in 2H25 .Accelerating through 2025
Leads/hospital channelOngoing investment; >1M pets; direct pay tech .Vet leads +30% YoY; record hospitals using direct pay; >15,000 active hospitals .Strengthening funnel top
RetentionTTM retention ~98.3% in 1H/3Q .TTM 98.25% (down YoY) but improving sequentially; focus to raise first-year retention .Stabilizing with initiatives
Other businessLower-margin B2B; decelerating as Pets Best transitions .Margin 0.8% including $0.9M write-down; secular decline to continue; growth ARPU-driven .Declining
Internal controlsMaterial weaknesses disclosed earlier; remediation underway .On track to remediate both weaknesses in 2024 audit; file 10-K on schedule .Improving
International expansionEarly investments; development expenses .Launch of Trupanion Europe in Germany/Switzerland; goodwill impairment due to timing/focus .Strategic refocus

Management Commentary

  • “The last quarter of 2024 marked the highest subscription adjusted operating margin in the history of Trupanion.” — Margi Tooth, CEO .
  • “Our subscription business delivered adjusted operating income of $35 million… approximately 230 basis points of margin expansion… the highest subscription adjusted operating margin in our company's history.” — Fawwad Qureshi, CFO .
  • “Q4… achieved our industry-leading 71% value proposition for the second consecutive quarter… we saw a 45% increase in our per pet profit even with the anticipated pullback in retention.” — Margi Tooth .
  • “Vet leads overall were up 30% year-over-year… record number of hospitals using our direct payment solution and over 15,000 active hospitals.” — Margi Tooth .
  • “We exceeded [our 2.5% FCF] goal in 2024 by generating free cash flow of $38.6 million, a margin of 3%… puts us in a very strong position to further increase… pet acquisition.” — Fawwad Qureshi .

Q&A Highlights

  • Growth cadence and PAC: Management plans a gradual ramp of PAC through 2025, aiming to approach 2022’s ~$80M spend, expecting pet growth to weigh more in 2H25; mix in 2024 was ~60% price / 40% pet count .
  • Conversion vs. gross adds: 4Q gross adds modest; focus in 2025 is improving conversion and retention with more brand spend; phone conversion at an all-time high despite higher ARPU .
  • Pricing/earned rate: Expect earned rate increases to remain >15% in 2025, albeit lower than prior two years; pricing refinement should aid retention .
  • Other business trajectory: Secular decline continues as pets roll off; revenue buoyed by ARPU increases; segment margin hit by $0.9M A/R write-down .
  • Goodwill impairment: $5.3M related to SmartPaws (reduced to zero goodwill) and PetExpert, reflecting delayed EU launch and focusing on fewer markets .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 (EPS/revenue/EBITDA/target price) was unavailable due to a temporary request limit exceeded during retrieval; as a result, we do not present consensus comparisons in this recap. Values would typically be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter confirms a successful pivot from margin repair to profitable growth: record subscription margin (15.3%) and improved value proposition (70.0%) provide a stronger base for reinvesting in PAC .
  • Cash flow discipline is now a material lever: Q4 FCF $21.8M and FY24 FCF $38.6M (3% margin) fund a planned 2025 PAC ramp without stressing the balance sheet; capital surplus at APIC is robust .
  • 2025 setup relies on execution in conversion and retention: management will ramp brand and funnel spend, expecting pet growth to be a bigger driver in 2H25 as rate flow normalizes .
  • Watch vet inflation and CAD/USD: guidance assumes ~15% vet inflation and a 69% rate—deviations could shift margins and reported revenue .
  • Other business is a headwind but de-risking: declining pet months and margin pressure persist; the core subscription engine is the driver of value .
  • International expansion continues with more focus: EU launch live in DE/CH, but impaired legacy assets reflect a narrower, more disciplined approach .
  • Tactical implication: Near-term stock reaction likely hinges on confidence in 2025 PAC ramp translating into accelerating net adds by 2H, while sustaining subscription margins amid price normalization and inflation .

All source data and quotes are drawn from Trupanion’s Q4/FY24 8-K and earnings materials, and prior quarter press releases: .